Step 01
Define
An editor writes one resolvable question, fixes the outcome taxonomy, and records the source standard.
Methodology · version 0.9 preview
Cadenza treats each forecast as a small public research object: defined before the event, locked on time, resolved from evidence, and corrected without erasure.
Method checksum
CF-METHOD-0.9
Five exhaustive outcomes
Pre-registered lock
Human evidence review
The lifecycle
Forecasts move in one direction. Each transition creates a timestamped record that can be inspected later.
Step 01
An editor writes one resolvable question, fixes the outcome taxonomy, and records the source standard.
Step 02
The underlying public listing, schedule, organization, and lock time are checked before publication.
Step 03
Forecasting closes before the first advertised round. The locked aggregate and every revision are preserved.
Step 04
A human reviewer classifies the first qualifying public confirmation and attaches its evidence.
Step 05
Proper scoring compares each probability estimate with the verified outcome and updates calibration.
Forecast object
Participants see the same question, outcome definitions, time boundary, and evidence standard. Editorial changes create a new visible version.
Outcome taxonomy
These five outcomes describe what the organization publicly does. They never ask who applied, advanced, or was privately considered.
Permanent appointment
The advertised permanent seat is filled.
Trial or temporary appointment
A trial, acting, interim, or fixed-term appointment is confirmed first.
No appointment
The search concludes without an appointment.
Cancelled, postponed, or reopened
The process materially changes before another outcome is confirmed.
No public confirmation by deadline
No qualifying public source appears before the resolution deadline.
Proper scoring
The multiclass Brier score compares the complete probability vector with the verified outcome. Lower is better. Expressing 65% confidence should mean that similarly rated calls resolve that way about 65% of the time.
BS = Σ (pi − oi)²
pᵢ
Probability assigned to outcome i
oᵢ
1 for the observed outcome; 0 otherwise
Σ
Sum across the five possible outcomes
Worked example
Trial or temporary appointment resolves
Brier score
One resolved example
0.280
The authoritative server time controls whether a revision is accepted.
The aggregate view remains hidden until a valid forecast is recorded.
Rate limits and account checks protect the aggregate from duplication.
Candidate names, rumored applicants, and private rosters are not accepted.
Corrections
A source can be retracted, clarified, or superseded. Corrections append a new classification, reason, reviewer, and timestamp while preserving the prior state.
Version 1 · 14 Jul · 09:10 UTC
Trial or temporary appointment
Version 2 · 14 Jul · 16:42 UTC
Permanent appointment
The organization clarified the employment term in a revised public announcement.
Questions
It creates a single observable stopping rule. Without it, later announcements could repeatedly rewrite what the original forecast meant.
An official organization page, public announcement, official roster, or another source explicitly accepted by the forecast contract. Anonymous claims and private messages do not qualify.
No. Public employment forecasts remain organization-level. The product does not accept candidate names, private applicant lists, or rumors about individuals.
No. The leaderboard is gated design research and is not part of the live pilot. If a future aggregate display ships, it will create no reward, special access, discount, or economic entitlement.
Record a local preview forecast and reveal the illustrative aggregate view.